Some NBA Top Shot Strategies: The Calm Before The Storm

It's awfully quiet on NBA Top Shot; almost too quiet

It feels quiet. Very quiet. We’re experiencing a dip.

Well, things are about to go bonkers again.

I’ve been trying to hoard my capital in NBA Top Shot the past couple of weeks, because I have felt that once these pre-ordered packs hit, along with their ~600,000 new Moments, we will see plenty of Moments that are $1-$5 and a slew of current participants wanting to sell-off something in their collection to become liquid and take advantage of the hysteria. I’ve been hoarding capital so that I can take advantage of two things:

  1. The market inefficiencies as soon as the new Moments hit the marketplace and buyers/sellers try to reach a stabilized price for each new Moment. Particularly given the new users to the platform that probably will want to simply recoup their money back from their pack; and

  2. Existing participants wanting to sell-off something in their collection to take advantage of the hysteria of Moments that will be priced at $1-$5 each. I think plenty of these people will try to sell-off one or two pieces and I think we’ll see a dip in prices across the older Moments (read: anything that isn’t in the new pack).

I did slip and make a purchase while listening to NBA Player Damion Lee who was on Peter Overzet’s Club Top Shot show (which I think is great content). They asked Damion for the name of one player he thinks could be big, because he clearly has intel from watching opponents on the court. He said Lonnie Walker, so I quickly scooped up his Cosmic Moment and then re-listed it. I woke up to a $1,600 profit the next morning.

I also happened to snag a Moment from Damion Lee himself. He’s the brother-in-law to Seth and Steph Curry, and he had his Seth Curry Moment listed for sale. I smashed the BUY button and now own a Moment that was once owned by an NBA player. I think that’s pretty neat and will be fun in the future to observe. Being able to see a running history of a Moment’s ownership is neat, just like if your house was previously owned by someone famous or if you happened to buy that 1906 Honus Wagner that Wayne Gretzky once owned.

WEN MORE PACKS?

Well, NBA Top Shot just dropped knowledge that if I’m understanding this correctly, two packs are coming — and both are probably this weekend! They just announced the Rising Stars pack, which is going to include Moments from several rookies including the infamous Anthony Edwards dunk from February 19, 2021 that is in the running for dunk of the year, and most certainly is Anthony Edwards’ first mega moment as an NBA player.

We are also going to see an NBA All-Stars pack. The belief is there will be two Challenge Rewards happening with this All-Star Set and those rewards will be LeBron James and Kevin Durant 😳

I was on a Clubhouse immediately after the Rising Stars announcement and got the first question in regarding what we all want to know The answer was: No details still on the number of packs, price of packs, or release date of packs. The Moments are minting now though.

New Edition Sizes

It is my belief that…

If two new packs drop this weekend, we’re in for a big bump in overall transactions. I do believe some of these prices on existing Moments will dip a bit and a transfer of value will shift towards the new Moments entering the Market. AKA, some of these Series 2 Base/Common Moments I believe are going to see a dip, maybe of 50% on non-big-name-players, but this is just a gut feel and I haven’t looked at data to confirm this.

Some of my strategies I’ve been thinking about the past couple of weeks:

  1. All-Star Game is this weekend. I’m guessing prices have already baked this in, but who knows— if someone does some incredible dunk in the dunk competition, or someone does something amazing during the game.

  2. It is my belief that once a player is no longer playing come playoffs, their stock in NBA Top Shot will cool down for the off-season. Likely in the summer will be a prime time to scoop up these players, but possibly during the playoffs will be a prime time — as some other collectors in the game of NBA Top Shot will want to get some funds in their account to buy up other Moments of players they are watching during the playoffs. Which leads me to my next point…

  3. Scoop up players on teams that can make a deep playoff run. Playoffs don’t begin until May 22, 2021, which is nearly 3 full months ago; which is 11 weeks away; which is, not that far away! Hello, Lakers and 76ers! Obviously the big name players will do well, but think about the little guys — is there anyone that’s on the outside of the rotation looking in, that if an injury or covid were to occur, they would be primed to get a lot of minutes? (Particularly, are there any young players that are the 6th man on the team and likely will be in the starting lineup next season? That’s a double-whammy — they’ll likely increase in value next season, but might also explode in the playoffs)

  4. Trade deadline is coming up, so target acquiring players now that will end up on a playoff team. You can find some player names that are getting tossed around as prime trade candidates: Al Horford, Bradley Beal, etc. I don’t know enough NBA to provide my opinions here, but hopefully you do or know where to find legitimate sources for possible trade candidates. I would be focused on the players that will be traded to playoff contenders. Playoff contenders may want an additional weapon and will be willing to trade a younger player on their team to do so. Whereas a team that won’t be in the playoffs may be in a bit of a rebuild or wants to get younger. Pay attention to players that are on the final year of their deal and likely could be dealt at the trade deadline. And of course, make sure you’re on Twitter, following @wojespn with Notifications turned ‘on’ (after you follow him on Twitter, there’s a bell next to his name— click that), so that you are notified immediately when a trade occurs and hopefully you’ll have a few minutes to react before most of the rest of the NBA Top Shot market.

  5. Target players that are on teams that will be on national TV the most over the final 3 months of the regular season. And then the following 2 months of playoffs? For example, I’m guessing the Lakers with LeBron have some great primetime Friday/Saturday night games? You and all your NBA Top Shot peers will all be watching those NBA games most likely.

  6. Target players that are on teams playing teams with big name players on them. If the Lakers will be seen the most by most NBA fans, then also, who are the Lakers playing — or playing the most? If Luka puts up another buzzer-beater 3-pointer against LeBron, that’s going to be massive for Luka. If someone stuffs LeBron, that’ll be huge. I’d look at TV and team schedules to see who will be getting the most Friday and Saturday night national TV games.

  7. Get some fantasy NBA coverage into your life and target players earlier in the day before a big game that night in which the player is expected to possibly explode, or in which that player’s team is expected to destroy the opposing team, or in which the opposing team lacks defense but will be putting up tons of points as well, so that it’s going to end up a high scoring battle with less defense played. Better yet, look out a week or two and try to determine which games are going to play out in any of these scenarios I just listed. Because when Embiid puts up 50 points in a game, his Moment prices are rising during game time. P.S. Great fantasy NBA coverage exists from Establish The Run; these guys are amazing at what they do. Here’s their YouTube channel where they put out some free content, and here’s their podcasts. They also have paid content for those who are really serious.

I don’t know that you realize this, but…

Just keep in the back of your head that some Moments on NBA Top Shot are going to be gone forever someday. There are already some Moments that are not for sale any longer on the platform. Whether that is because the collectors want those permanently in their collection, or they are waiting for NBA Top Shot to raise the maximum listing price above $250,000, is unknown, but you are going to find that someday… that Vince Carter final shot Moment, will be gone. The last one will sell and that’ll be it. Sure, there’ll be some on/off sales of the Moment the closer we get to <10 of them on the marketplace, but eventually, true collectors will be holding those Moments with diamond hands 💎🤲🏻 Forever.

Looking for more content and tools?

If you’re looking for more content, here are some recommendations:

  1. @TheFirstMint - I probably don’t need to tell you this one. Great podcast and great tweets to keep you updated on pack drops and what’s dropping in packs.

  2. @PlungeFather - analytical NBA Top Shot tweets.

  3. @chugsnbugs - analytical NBA Top Shot tweets.

  4. @_GregMurray - analytical NBA Top Shot tweets.

  5. @OwnTheMoment - analytical NBA Top Shot tweets and a YouTube/podcast.

  6. @NBATopShotBot - any Moment sales over $2,500 are automatically tweeted here.

  7. @SteefTS - analytical NBA Top Shot tweets.

  8. @Taylor_Stein - writing some analytical pieces such as this one: Simple NBA Top Shot marketplace strategies, and why you should ignore 95% of listings

NBA Top Shot Tools:

  1. evaluate.market - so much here. Check the floor value of your account portfolio, check any Moment and learn how many are owned, how many are still in packs, how many unique owners there are. So much going on with this site, they are doing a great job.

  2. MomentRanks.com - check the value of your account portfolio and follow your friends. Fun data on here.

  3. Add More Funds - I haven’t signed up or tried it, but they have price alerts. Want to know when a price for a specific Moment you’re eyeing is below (or above) a certain price? That’s a price alert. As a non-supporter you get 1 free price alert and Supporters get no limit on alerts.

  4. WEN PACKS? - Fellow Club Top Shot co-host Jack Settleman has setup a free text service to alert you when packs are going to drop. Text the word PACKS to 4433834140 .

Help me, Help you

If you enjoyed this content, I have one question for you — what do you need in a software tool / mobile app so that you would be more informed and successful at investing in NBA Top Shot? What information do you wish you had? Example: “I wish I could be notified immediately when X Moment goes below $Y price” or “There are a few Moments I want in my collection long-term, but when should I buy them?”

Any questions?

Hit me up @popo on Twitter, or comment on this post, or reply to this email (if you received it that way).