Cool Cats Master Challenge Reward is a LaMelo Ball Rookie Moment. Should You Complete the 4 Cool Cats Challenges Necessary to be Rewarded?
NBA Top Shot just announced a Master Challenge for Cool Cats, Series 2. In essence, you need to collect all of the Cool Cats that are released in packs (20 of them; they just dropped the first five Cool Cats out of four releases). You also need to collect the Cool Cats Challenge Reward for each of the four releases, thus there are 24 Cool Cats that you’ll need in total to then complete the Master Challenge and be rewarded with a LaMelo Ball Rookie Moment, which will be his second Moment on the NBA Top Shot platform and the first dunk on the platform. His first Moment is an assist.
At current prices, the first five Cool Cats you will need are $1,331.
To achieve the first of four Cool Cats Challenge Rewards (Luka Dončić), you will need those 5 Cool Cat Moments, as well as 5 other Base Set Moments that total $56, for a grand total of $1,387. (That Challenge ends in 4 days.)
Because the rarest Moments needed for these Challenges have a count of 5,000, then 5,000 is the most Luka’s that could be rewarded. However, some of these Cool Cats are stuck in unopened packs and simply being held by users that are not participating in the Challenge. As of yesterday, there are just over 2,000 people that have completed the Challenge according to @PlungeFather (who is putting out some great data on Twitter).
Thus, if you aren’t participating in the Luka Challenge, then you’ll need to pony up some money to acquire it. And at a cost of $1,387 to complete this Challenge today, I am guessing any owners that list the Luka will likely want more than that — I would expect a 2x, which is at least $2,750.
HOWEVER, why would any of these new owners of the Luka Moment sell it now?
There’s a Master Challenge to complete here.
I think the marketplace for the Luka Moment will be dried up and those who are late to the party, won’t have an opportunity to complete the Master Challenge.
I think this Luka Moment is going to be selling at $5,000+ during this Challenge and I’m willing to bet a few people are going to feel left out and pony up for it.
Now, let’s think out the rest of these Challenges, as well as the Master Challenge. I think however many people complete this initial Cool Cats Challenge will continue to participate in the next three Cool Cats Challenges, as well as the Master Challenge.
My guess is that ultimately there will be 2,000+ people that complete the Master Challenge. That is presuming that the five (Base Set, Series 2) Moments that are chosen for each of the next 3 Cool Cats Challenges will be also be of the 15,000+ variety, because NBA Top Shot wants to make these Challenges as accessible to as many users as possible.
Once all 4 of the Cool Cats Challenges have come to end, the Marketplace will have 2,000+ Luka Cool Cats Challenge Rewards, as well as 2,000+ of the other 3 Cool Cats Challenge Rewards, and likely 2,000+ of the LaMelo Ball Cool Cats Challenge Reward. I would imagine at that point, the Luka Cool Cats Challenge Reward Moment prices will begin to drop down to a floor price of $2,800 (2x the cost to obtain the Reward).
Meanwhile today, you can purchase one scarcer Luka Moment for cheaper than the $1,387 required for this #/2000+ Luka Cool Cats Reward Moment. The floor price on the Series 1 Base Set Dunk from March 11, 2020 can be purchased for $1,099 (#/1431; 60 listings). The most recent sales of this Moment on February 3, 2020 were for $1,000 - $1,350, with a top sale price of $3,500 all-time.
As for LaMelo Ball, his 1st Moment on NBA Top Shot, which is also his only Moment, his 1st Year Moment (“Rookie Moment”), and his NBA Debut Game Moment, is the Assist Moment from December 23, 2020, which is from a limited print run of only #/4000 with 321 listings currently and a floor price of $489.
The Cool Cats Master Challenge Reward of LaMelo Ball’s 2nd Moment on NBA Top Shot, will not be his NBA Debut Game (the teaser image that NBA Top Shot is showing us has him in a different jersey), but will be another Rookie Moment of his, and is his first Dunk Moment on NBA Top Shot. This Moment in my opinion will likely be #/2000+.
If you do some quick math, assuming all four of these Cool Cats Challenges will be similar in regards to prices, then those participating (if just buying the necessary Moments from the Marketplace), will likely be spending $1,387 * 4 = $5,548, which should make this LaMelo Ball Master Challenge Reward worth at least $5,548, but again, likely 2x if someone were to list it, so probably ~$11,000.
That $11,000 price point seems unrealistic for this Moment of 2,000+, at least for now with the limited number of users on NBA Top Shot at this time. However, given the lengths people will be going to complete this Challenge, may result in most owners just holding the Reward, which could then leave a barren Market of listings for this Moment and a floor of $11,000.
What is glaring to me from doing this exercise is how cheap…
…the LaMelo Ball #/4000 1st/Rookie Year/NBA Debut Moment seems to be at a current floor price of $489. Even if the Cool Cats Master Challenge Reward of LaMelo Ball were to be selling/listed with a floor price of $5,000, that has to make this #/4000 Moment seem like a steal someday.
And so I’m putting my money where my mouth is…
…and I just added this LaMelo Moment. It is my first Moment purchase in 12 days. The floor price is now $496 after my purchase. Good luck to everyone!
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